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We have things to discuss. You know who this is. downtheriver84@protonmail.com

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Aug 5, 2022·edited Aug 5, 2022

Does the OP mention at all how the initial violence was directed at conservative speakers who were visiting college campuses to critique far left politics? The first death threats and acts of violence were done by leftist radicals. The first group to demand censorship of political opinions were far leftists. The problem is not right or left alone. It is an American problem. I really hope people don't forget this.

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Cybil. This is a really interesting and thought provoking piece. You clearly did a very good job on it. Here’s my two cents.

I think the US is still in a good spot. In the distant future people will still probably view this as the height of American civilizational power, accelerated by Russia surprisingly. I think your analysis on the troubles is very good and that’s actually the worse case scenario I personally see playing out. I have never used Yugoslavia however. Yugoslavia was essentially all multiple ethnic groups that were all conquered by different multi ethnic empires with different cultures which later eroded all of which have thousands of years of roots and traditions in the region. Tito who was half Croat and Half Slovene. A mixed ethnic person who was basically the only man who could hold Yugoslavia together. One he died, the petty Balkan nationalism returned. Yugoslavia was gonna die with Tito unless they did hyper assimilation programs. Compare this with the US with Americans that all have similar backgrounds, only go back 300 years at the most, and live in an increasingly homogenous country culturally. Both political sides are very diverse. I mean trump won more ethnic minority votes than any republican in 100 years. The whitest group in America ironically are progressives, most of those ethnic minority democrat voters vote center blue. Remember when Bernie bros were seething at black people for biden? While there may be a political divide not seen since reconstruction but ethnically, religiously, racially, Americans are more supportive and friendly to their peers than any time ever. While politically we have not been this divided in a long time, as a people we’re the most unified we’ve ever been. Accelerated by the internet. There are no lines that are cracking. Secessionist movements in europe are far more powerful. If any country is likely to split up in the developed world, it’s Spain, the UK, or Canada where actual ethnic differences are very pronounced (and many of which have the same domestic problems as the US but have a harder time admitting them). I do think a political crisis not only is brewing but it’s about to break. These usually don’t end up in collapses but the country exits them unrecognizable from before both very good and bad.

Here’s my take on a civil war, due how the internet atomizes individuals, and how most connections take place from vastly geographically different settings I actually think our crisis isn’t just starting but we’ve been deep in it since 2015. I think the civil war has been cold with lone wolf actors and a massive proxy war fought on a theater known as the internet. Notice how hard it is for proud boys, CHAZ, and even the Jan 6 riot for people to mobilize? Because they operate in a different world. As for the Supreme Court. I wouldn’t take their word as an omen of the future. I’d take it as the opposite. Remember who upheld child labor laws as they were being phased out. I don’t think democracy will die, most of its dysfunction comes from the boomers that will die or retire. If worst came to worst, it’d probably hover around Poland or where it was in the 50s then start to regenerate. A theme very consistent in American history.

America will collapse some day. That’s inevitable. But I don’t think the time is yet. Not when the US still has so many advantages. The only stable demography in the developed world, very good geography, one of the most objectively stable regimes (that has seen just as many if not more crisis as what’s happening today, one of the highest GDP per capita in the world, while it’s wealth inequality is bad so is Sweden’s and Denmark’s and they’re just fine (with income inequality being an easy fix), one of the worlds best geographies, history’s most widespread and potent culture, along with a major general patriotism that’s even more pronounced with immigrants. If any period was likely to have civil war after the 1860s, I’d pick either 1919 or the 60s. Both were far more violent and Yugoslav like periods than today.

I’m gonna end this off with a confession/perspective. You know that Colorado fire you mentioned at the end? I actually live five minutes from where it happened (ironically the Chuck E. Cheese went unscathed). It was MY community that got hit. That very experience actually re invigorated my optimism about the future of this country. It’s crazy how quickly people put aside their petty politics to help others out. The community votes very blue but there were an astronomic shit ton of republicans and MAGA gun people putting aside their petty politics to help people. There were also tons coming from all over the country to help. If America were politics motivated, those democrat families that got fucked over would be left to rot and they weren’t. Even if they did disagree. Humanity, community, and humility trump all and there’s no country where this is seen than America. Nobody sat to watch the fire works, they set all their shit aside and got to work fixing it. They still have a ways to go now but it’s the right direction. That made me realize that Americans are bored men, fighting bored man fights waiting for our next true fight forever mired like zoo animals in our prosperous cages that are still cages. Great yes but Americans were never meant for it. Our ancestors explored continents and went to the moon, they weren’t meant to be fatsos living the most prosperous life ever achieved. Our crisis is more like how brothers bicker and will always have each other’s backs than an actual hatred and rivalry that burns the family down. It can get bitter and venomous but it still is brotherhood. At the end of the day, nobody cares in principle outside of some terminally online people (which is why said people seem to have such a hard time mobilizing). It was this event that happened so close to our community, that caused so much damage and despair, and that rocked the community and state to its core that it made me realize we and are nation or are experiment aren’t doomed after all.

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